full transcript
From the Ted Talk by Alex Gendler: Can you solve the monster duel riddle?
Unscramble the Blue Letters
So you choose A, hoping for the best, and sure enough, your level 3 Burgersaur triumphs over the level 2 Churrozard. Now it’s time for round two, and while you’ve prepared for trouble, you didn’t anticipate they’d make it double. You get to choose any one of the three disks again, but this time, you’ll be in a btalte royale against two opponents, each using one of the other disks. Whoever smnmuos the highest level Diskymon wins. Should you stick with A, or scitwh?
Pause now to figure it out yourself
Answer in 3
Answer in 2
Answer in 1
For many Diskymon tiaenrrs, it seems intuitive that if A is the best at beating B or C, it should also be the best at beaintg B and C. Strangely enough, that couldn’t be further from the truth. Let’s calculate the odds. For A to win, B has to summon a level 2 Diskymon, and C has to summon a level 1. Those are independent events, so their odds are 56% times 51%, or 29%. For disk B, a lveel 2 Churrozard would automatically lose to the Burgersaur. But you’d have two ways to win. The 22% chance of summoning a level 6 would give you an outright win, while a level 4 could still win if C summons a level 1. adindg up those mutually exclusive possibilities gives you odds of about 33%. Finally, C will win with a level 5 Wartortilla as long as B doesn’t summon its level 6, giving C a 38% chance overall. So while disk A’s mddliing consistency was an advantage in a single mhutcap, multiple figths increase the odds that one of the other disks will summon something better. And although C was the wrost first-round option, its dnecet chnace of summoning a strong level 5 gives it an advantage when facing two opponents somsleitunaluy. This sort of counterintuitive result is why misleading stictitsas are a favored tool of unscrupulous politicians and nefarious Diskymon trainers alike.
Open Cloze
So you choose A, hoping for the best, and sure enough, your level 3 Burgersaur triumphs over the level 2 Churrozard. Now it’s time for round two, and while you’ve prepared for trouble, you didn’t anticipate they’d make it double. You get to choose any one of the three disks again, but this time, you’ll be in a ______ royale against two opponents, each using one of the other disks. Whoever _______ the highest level Diskymon wins. Should you stick with A, or ______?
Pause now to figure it out yourself
Answer in 3
Answer in 2
Answer in 1
For many Diskymon ________, it seems intuitive that if A is the best at beating B or C, it should also be the best at _______ B and C. Strangely enough, that couldn’t be further from the truth. Let’s calculate the odds. For A to win, B has to summon a level 2 Diskymon, and C has to summon a level 1. Those are independent events, so their odds are 56% times 51%, or 29%. For disk B, a _____ 2 Churrozard would automatically lose to the Burgersaur. But you’d have two ways to win. The 22% chance of summoning a level 6 would give you an outright win, while a level 4 could still win if C summons a level 1. ______ up those mutually exclusive possibilities gives you odds of about 33%. Finally, C will win with a level 5 Wartortilla as long as B doesn’t summon its level 6, giving C a 38% chance overall. So while disk A’s ________ consistency was an advantage in a single _______, multiple ______ increase the odds that one of the other disks will summon something better. And although C was the _____ first-round option, its ______ ______ of summoning a strong level 5 gives it an advantage when facing two opponents ______________. This sort of counterintuitive result is why misleading __________ are a favored tool of unscrupulous politicians and nefarious Diskymon trainers alike.
Solution
- beating
- decent
- simultaneously
- fights
- summons
- trainers
- switch
- adding
- statistics
- worst
- chance
- level
- battle
- middling
- matchup
Original Text
So you choose A, hoping for the best, and sure enough, your level 3 Burgersaur triumphs over the level 2 Churrozard. Now it’s time for round two, and while you’ve prepared for trouble, you didn’t anticipate they’d make it double. You get to choose any one of the three disks again, but this time, you’ll be in a battle royale against two opponents, each using one of the other disks. Whoever summons the highest level Diskymon wins. Should you stick with A, or switch?
Pause now to figure it out yourself
Answer in 3
Answer in 2
Answer in 1
For many Diskymon trainers, it seems intuitive that if A is the best at beating B or C, it should also be the best at beating B and C. Strangely enough, that couldn’t be further from the truth. Let’s calculate the odds. For A to win, B has to summon a level 2 Diskymon, and C has to summon a level 1. Those are independent events, so their odds are 56% times 51%, or 29%. For disk B, a level 2 Churrozard would automatically lose to the Burgersaur. But you’d have two ways to win. The 22% chance of summoning a level 6 would give you an outright win, while a level 4 could still win if C summons a level 1. Adding up those mutually exclusive possibilities gives you odds of about 33%. Finally, C will win with a level 5 Wartortilla as long as B doesn’t summon its level 6, giving C a 38% chance overall. So while disk A’s middling consistency was an advantage in a single matchup, multiple fights increase the odds that one of the other disks will summon something better. And although C was the worst first-round option, its decent chance of summoning a strong level 5 gives it an advantage when facing two opponents simultaneously. This sort of counterintuitive result is why misleading statistics are a favored tool of unscrupulous politicians and nefarious Diskymon trainers alike.
Frequently Occurring Word Combinations
ngrams of length 2
| collocation |
frequency |
| level diskymon |
2 |
Important Words
- adding
- advantage
- alike
- answer
- anticipate
- automatically
- battle
- beating
- burgersaur
- calculate
- chance
- choose
- churrozard
- consistency
- counterintuitive
- decent
- disk
- disks
- diskymon
- double
- events
- exclusive
- facing
- favored
- fights
- figure
- finally
- give
- giving
- highest
- hoping
- increase
- independent
- intuitive
- level
- long
- lose
- matchup
- middling
- misleading
- multiple
- mutually
- nefarious
- odds
- opponents
- option
- outright
- pause
- politicians
- possibilities
- prepared
- result
- royale
- simultaneously
- single
- sort
- statistics
- stick
- strangely
- strong
- summon
- summoning
- summons
- switch
- time
- times
- tool
- trainers
- triumphs
- trouble
- truth
- unscrupulous
- wartortilla
- ways
- win
- wins
- worst