TedTest

From the Ted Talk by Ram Neta: How do you know whom to trust?

Unscramble the Blue Letters

You believe that the Sun is much lergar than the Earth, that the erath is a rlhuogy sriheapcl pnealt that rotates on its axis every 24 hrous and it revolves around the Sun once every 365 days. You believe that you were born on a particular date, that you were born to two human parents and that each of your human parents was born on an earlier date. You believe that other human bgeins have thoughts and flgienes like you do and that you are not surrounded by humanoid robots. You believe all of these things and many more, not on the basis of dciert observation, which can't, by itself, tell you very much about the relative size and motion of the Sun and the Earth, or about your own family history, or about what goes on in the minds of other humans. Instead, these beliefs are mostly based on what you've been told. Without spoken and wrteitn testimonies, human beings could not pass on knowledge from one person to another, let alone from one gonreaetin to another. We would know much, much less about the world around us. So learning about a topic by asking an expert on that topic, or appealing to authority, helps us gain knowledge, but, it doesn't always. Even the most highly restpceed authorities can turn out to be wrong. Occasionally this happens because a highly respected authority is dsisneoht and claims to know something that she or he really doesn't know. Sometimes it happens just because they make a mistake. They think they know when they don't know. For example, a number of respected economists did not expect the financial collapse of 2008. They turned out to be wrong. Maybe they were wrong because they were overlooking some important eeinvcde. Maybe they were wrong because they were misinterpreting some of the evidence they had ncoietd. Or maybe they were wnrog simply because they were reasoning clelrsseay from the ttaol body of their evidence. But whatever the reason, they turned out to be wrong and many people who trusted their authority eednd up losing lots of money, losing lots of other people's money, on account of that misplaced trust. So while appealing to authority can sometimes provide us with valuable knowledge, it also can sometimes be the cause of monumental errors. It's important to all of us to be able to distinguish those occasions on which we can safely and reasonably trust authority from those occasions on which we can't. But how do we do that? In order to do that, nothing is more useful than an authority's track rrceod on a particular topic. If someone turns out to perform well in a given situation much of the time, then it's likely that he or she will continue to porrfem well in that same situation, at least in the near term. And this generalization hlods true of the testimony of authorities as much as of anything else. If someone can consistently pick winners in both politics and baseball, then we should probably trust him or her to keep on picking winners in both politics or baseball, though maybe not in other things where his or her track record may be less stellar. If other fercoresats have a poorer track record on those same two topics, then we shouldn't tusrt them as much. So whenever you're considering whether to trust the testimony of some ariouthty, the first question to ask yourself is, "What's their track record on this topic?" And notice that you can apply the very same lesson to yourself. Your instincts tell you that you've just met Mr. Right, but what sort of track record do your instincts have on topics like this one? Have your instincts porevn themselves to be worthy of your trust? Just as we judge other people's testimony by their track record, so, too, we can judge our own intcnists by their track record. And this brings us one step cloesr to an objective view of ourselves and our relation to the world around us.

Open Cloze

You believe that the Sun is much ______ than the Earth, that the _____ is a _______ _________ ______ that rotates on its axis every 24 _____ and it revolves around the Sun once every 365 days. You believe that you were born on a particular date, that you were born to two human parents and that each of your human parents was born on an earlier date. You believe that other human ______ have thoughts and ________ like you do and that you are not surrounded by humanoid robots. You believe all of these things and many more, not on the basis of ______ observation, which can't, by itself, tell you very much about the relative size and motion of the Sun and the Earth, or about your own family history, or about what goes on in the minds of other humans. Instead, these beliefs are mostly based on what you've been told. Without spoken and _______ testimonies, human beings could not pass on knowledge from one person to another, let alone from one __________ to another. We would know much, much less about the world around us. So learning about a topic by asking an expert on that topic, or appealing to authority, helps us gain knowledge, but, it doesn't always. Even the most highly _________ authorities can turn out to be wrong. Occasionally this happens because a highly respected authority is _________ and claims to know something that she or he really doesn't know. Sometimes it happens just because they make a mistake. They think they know when they don't know. For example, a number of respected economists did not expect the financial collapse of 2008. They turned out to be wrong. Maybe they were wrong because they were overlooking some important ________. Maybe they were wrong because they were misinterpreting some of the evidence they had _______. Or maybe they were _____ simply because they were reasoning __________ from the _____ body of their evidence. But whatever the reason, they turned out to be wrong and many people who trusted their authority _____ up losing lots of money, losing lots of other people's money, on account of that misplaced trust. So while appealing to authority can sometimes provide us with valuable knowledge, it also can sometimes be the cause of monumental errors. It's important to all of us to be able to distinguish those occasions on which we can safely and reasonably trust authority from those occasions on which we can't. But how do we do that? In order to do that, nothing is more useful than an authority's track ______ on a particular topic. If someone turns out to perform well in a given situation much of the time, then it's likely that he or she will continue to _______ well in that same situation, at least in the near term. And this generalization _____ true of the testimony of authorities as much as of anything else. If someone can consistently pick winners in both politics and baseball, then we should probably trust him or her to keep on picking winners in both politics or baseball, though maybe not in other things where his or her track record may be less stellar. If other ___________ have a poorer track record on those same two topics, then we shouldn't _____ them as much. So whenever you're considering whether to trust the testimony of some _________, the first question to ask yourself is, "What's their track record on this topic?" And notice that you can apply the very same lesson to yourself. Your instincts tell you that you've just met Mr. Right, but what sort of track record do your instincts have on topics like this one? Have your instincts ______ themselves to be worthy of your trust? Just as we judge other people's testimony by their track record, so, too, we can judge our own _________ by their track record. And this brings us one step ______ to an objective view of ourselves and our relation to the world around us.

Solution

proven
total
noticed
feelings
ended
dishonest
roughly
authority
carelessly
planet
instincts
spherical
evidence
wrong
record
holds
respected
forecasters
generation
direct
trust
closer
written
beings
hours
larger
earth
perform

Original Text

You believe that the Sun is much larger than the Earth, that the Earth is a roughly spherical planet that rotates on its axis every 24 hours and it revolves around the Sun once every 365 days. You believe that you were born on a particular date, that you were born to two human parents and that each of your human parents was born on an earlier date. You believe that other human beings have thoughts and feelings like you do and that you are not surrounded by humanoid robots. You believe all of these things and many more, not on the basis of direct observation, which can't, by itself, tell you very much about the relative size and motion of the Sun and the Earth, or about your own family history, or about what goes on in the minds of other humans. Instead, these beliefs are mostly based on what you've been told. Without spoken and written testimonies, human beings could not pass on knowledge from one person to another, let alone from one generation to another. We would know much, much less about the world around us. So learning about a topic by asking an expert on that topic, or appealing to authority, helps us gain knowledge, but, it doesn't always. Even the most highly respected authorities can turn out to be wrong. Occasionally this happens because a highly respected authority is dishonest and claims to know something that she or he really doesn't know. Sometimes it happens just because they make a mistake. They think they know when they don't know. For example, a number of respected economists did not expect the financial collapse of 2008. They turned out to be wrong. Maybe they were wrong because they were overlooking some important evidence. Maybe they were wrong because they were misinterpreting some of the evidence they had noticed. Or maybe they were wrong simply because they were reasoning carelessly from the total body of their evidence. But whatever the reason, they turned out to be wrong and many people who trusted their authority ended up losing lots of money, losing lots of other people's money, on account of that misplaced trust. So while appealing to authority can sometimes provide us with valuable knowledge, it also can sometimes be the cause of monumental errors. It's important to all of us to be able to distinguish those occasions on which we can safely and reasonably trust authority from those occasions on which we can't. But how do we do that? In order to do that, nothing is more useful than an authority's track record on a particular topic. If someone turns out to perform well in a given situation much of the time, then it's likely that he or she will continue to perform well in that same situation, at least in the near term. And this generalization holds true of the testimony of authorities as much as of anything else. If someone can consistently pick winners in both politics and baseball, then we should probably trust him or her to keep on picking winners in both politics or baseball, though maybe not in other things where his or her track record may be less stellar. If other forecasters have a poorer track record on those same two topics, then we shouldn't trust them as much. So whenever you're considering whether to trust the testimony of some authority, the first question to ask yourself is, "What's their track record on this topic?" And notice that you can apply the very same lesson to yourself. Your instincts tell you that you've just met Mr. Right, but what sort of track record do your instincts have on topics like this one? Have your instincts proven themselves to be worthy of your trust? Just as we judge other people's testimony by their track record, so, too, we can judge our own instincts by their track record. And this brings us one step closer to an objective view of ourselves and our relation to the world around us.

Frequently Occurring Word Combinations

ngrams of length 2

collocation	frequency
track record	6
human parents	2
human beings	2
highly respected	2
losing lots	2

Important Words

account
appealing
apply
authorities
authority
axis
baseball
based
basis
beings
beliefs
body
born
brings
carelessly
claims
closer
collapse
consistently
continue
date
days
direct
dishonest
distinguish
earlier
earth
economists
ended
errors
evidence
expect
expert
family
feelings
financial
forecasters
gain
generalization
generation
helps
highly
history
holds
hours
human
humanoid
humans
important
instincts
judge
knowledge
larger
learning
lesson
losing
lots
met
minds
misinterpreting
misplaced
mistake
money
monumental
motion
notice
noticed
number
objective
observation
occasionally
occasions
order
overlooking
parents
pass
people
perform
person
pick
picking
planet
politics
poorer
proven
provide
question
reason
reasoning
record
relation
relative
respected
revolves
robots
rotates
roughly
safely
simply
situation
size
sort
spherical
spoken
stellar
step
sun
surrounded
term
testimonies
testimony
thoughts
time
told
topic
topics
total
track
true
trust
trusted
turn
turned
turns
valuable
view
winners
world
worthy
written
wrong