full transcript
From the Ted Talk by Ian Bremmer: How far away is a ceasefire? An update on Gaza and the Rafah invasion
Unscramble the Blue Letters
So let's break down two different parts of this. First, let's look at what happened between Israel and Iran. Then let's look at what the Iranians are doing going forward. First, what happened? So the Israelis, who have been on the receiving end of attacks from all of these Iranian proxies across the region, and Iran gives the menoy and weaponry and tniraing and intelligence. So then the irlieass see this tgaert in Damascus. The IRGC, Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, their head for sirya. And so they send missiles in. They blow up the building, they kill him and some other oefrcfis. And so then the Iranians, on the one hand, they clearly don't want a war, so they tell the Turks and Iraqis in ancvdae, "Here's what we're planning on doing," They wait a week. The messages get to the Americans. "Just going to attack military targets, not going to attack any civilians. This isn't about the United States. We don't want the US involved." Then they send the weapons over. While the weapons are in, you know, in transit, the Iranian mosisin to the UN says, "Hey, this is all we're doing. It's in rpsosnee to what the Israelis did. We consider this now closed." That all sounds pretty good. sondus de-escalatory, tit for tat. Except, they sent over 300 missiles and drones. And I will tell you that no one in the Biden administration, in the Pentagon, in the White House, no one thought that that was going to happen. They thought that was such a larger response from Iran. I mean, if you wtnead to just hit Israel to show that this is serious, you send 20, 30 dornes, whatever, you know they're going to knock them down. You send over 300, the intention is for a bunch of them to get through. The intention is to blow up a mojar Israeli base, to kill Israeli military men and women. If that had happened, the ability of the United States to contain the Israeli response to something symbolic would have been very, very challenging. In other words, we might right now be in an Iran-Israel war that the Americans got sucked into. The Straits of Hormuz would have been dspretuid. Iran also bderaod an Israeli-linked ship just outside the Straits of Hormuz, right before they sent those woepans, showing "this is where this can go if this gets really ugly." That's 150-dollar oil. That's tmrup is the next president, right? That's a that's a major war in the Middle East that the Americans are actively fighting with aliles. Horrible situation. I don't think it was likely, but the Iranians were prepared to risk that, at least to a liteimd degree. And that's something that everyone in the rigeon now understands. And the Israelis understand it, too.
Open Cloze
So let's break down two different parts of this. First, let's look at what happened between Israel and Iran. Then let's look at what the Iranians are doing going forward. First, what happened? So the Israelis, who have been on the receiving end of attacks from all of these Iranian proxies across the region, and Iran gives the _____ and weaponry and ________ and intelligence. So then the ________ see this ______ in Damascus. The IRGC, Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, their head for _____. And so they send missiles in. They blow up the building, they kill him and some other ________. And so then the Iranians, on the one hand, they clearly don't want a war, so they tell the Turks and Iraqis in _______, "Here's what we're planning on doing," They wait a week. The messages get to the Americans. "Just going to attack military targets, not going to attack any civilians. This isn't about the United States. We don't want the US involved." Then they send the weapons over. While the weapons are in, you know, in transit, the Iranian _______ to the UN says, "Hey, this is all we're doing. It's in ________ to what the Israelis did. We consider this now closed." That all sounds pretty good. ______ de-escalatory, tit for tat. Except, they sent over 300 missiles and drones. And I will tell you that no one in the Biden administration, in the Pentagon, in the White House, no one thought that that was going to happen. They thought that was such a larger response from Iran. I mean, if you ______ to just hit Israel to show that this is serious, you send 20, 30 ______, whatever, you know they're going to knock them down. You send over 300, the intention is for a bunch of them to get through. The intention is to blow up a _____ Israeli base, to kill Israeli military men and women. If that had happened, the ability of the United States to contain the Israeli response to something symbolic would have been very, very challenging. In other words, we might right now be in an Iran-Israel war that the Americans got sucked into. The Straits of Hormuz would have been _________. Iran also _______ an Israeli-linked ship just outside the Straits of Hormuz, right before they sent those _______, showing "this is where this can go if this gets really ugly." That's 150-dollar oil. That's _____ is the next president, right? That's a that's a major war in the Middle East that the Americans are actively fighting with ______. Horrible situation. I don't think it was likely, but the Iranians were prepared to risk that, at least to a _______ degree. And that's something that everyone in the ______ now understands. And the Israelis understand it, too.
Solution
- sounds
- drones
- allies
- disrupted
- region
- officers
- weapons
- advance
- wanted
- limited
- training
- response
- israelis
- syria
- target
- major
- mission
- money
- trump
- boarded
Original Text
So let's break down two different parts of this. First, let's look at what happened between Israel and Iran. Then let's look at what the Iranians are doing going forward. First, what happened? So the Israelis, who have been on the receiving end of attacks from all of these Iranian proxies across the region, and Iran gives the money and weaponry and training and intelligence. So then the Israelis see this target in Damascus. The IRGC, Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, their head for Syria. And so they send missiles in. They blow up the building, they kill him and some other officers. And so then the Iranians, on the one hand, they clearly don't want a war, so they tell the Turks and Iraqis in advance, "Here's what we're planning on doing," They wait a week. The messages get to the Americans. "Just going to attack military targets, not going to attack any civilians. This isn't about the United States. We don't want the US involved." Then they send the weapons over. While the weapons are in, you know, in transit, the Iranian mission to the UN says, "Hey, this is all we're doing. It's in response to what the Israelis did. We consider this now closed." That all sounds pretty good. Sounds de-escalatory, tit for tat. Except, they sent over 300 missiles and drones. And I will tell you that no one in the Biden administration, in the Pentagon, in the White House, no one thought that that was going to happen. They thought that was such a larger response from Iran. I mean, if you wanted to just hit Israel to show that this is serious, you send 20, 30 drones, whatever, you know they're going to knock them down. You send over 300, the intention is for a bunch of them to get through. The intention is to blow up a major Israeli base, to kill Israeli military men and women. If that had happened, the ability of the United States to contain the Israeli response to something symbolic would have been very, very challenging. In other words, we might right now be in an Iran-Israel war that the Americans got sucked into. The Straits of Hormuz would have been disrupted. Iran also boarded an Israeli-linked ship just outside the Straits of Hormuz, right before they sent those weapons, showing "this is where this can go if this gets really ugly." That's 150-dollar oil. That's Trump is the next president, right? That's a that's a major war in the Middle East that the Americans are actively fighting with allies. Horrible situation. I don't think it was likely, but the Iranians were prepared to risk that, at least to a limited degree. And that's something that everyone in the region now understands. And the Israelis understand it, too.
Frequently Occurring Word Combinations
ngrams of length 2
| collocation |
frequency |
| united states |
8 |
| prime minister |
5 |
| israeli government |
3 |
| normalize relations |
3 |
| middle east |
3 |
| humanitarian aid |
3 |
| war cabinet |
3 |
| credible path |
3 |
| palestinian state |
3 |
| israeli prime |
3 |
| paying attention |
2 |
| terrible voice |
2 |
| good news |
2 |
| hamas destroyed |
2 |
| terrorist organization |
2 |
| small number |
2 |
| palestinian people |
2 |
| safe passage |
2 |
| west bank |
2 |
| israeli attack |
2 |
| nuclear program |
2 |
| send missiles |
2 |
| palestinian authority |
2 |
| israeli jews |
2 |
| israeli people |
2 |
| islamist extremist |
2 |
ngrams of length 3
| collocation |
frequency |
| israeli prime minister |
3 |
Important Words
- ability
- actively
- administration
- advance
- allies
- americans
- attack
- attacks
- base
- biden
- blow
- boarded
- break
- building
- bunch
- challenging
- civilians
- closed
- corps
- damascus
- degree
- disrupted
- drones
- east
- fighting
- good
- guards
- hand
- happen
- happened
- head
- hit
- hormuz
- horrible
- house
- intelligence
- intention
- involved
- iran
- iranian
- iranians
- iraqis
- irgc
- islamic
- israel
- israeli
- israelis
- kill
- knock
- larger
- limited
- major
- men
- messages
- middle
- military
- missiles
- mission
- money
- officers
- oil
- parts
- pentagon
- planning
- prepared
- president
- pretty
- proxies
- receiving
- region
- response
- revolutionary
- risk
- send
- ship
- show
- showing
- situation
- sounds
- states
- straits
- sucked
- symbolic
- syria
- target
- targets
- tat
- thought
- tit
- training
- transit
- trump
- turks
- ugly
- understand
- understands
- united
- wait
- wanted
- war
- weaponry
- weapons
- week
- white
- women
- words