full transcript

From the Ted Talk by Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak: How to live with economic doomsaying

Unscramble the Blue Letters


(lhtguear)

So what we need is an open, ecielctc mind, not clseod for moleds. Now, the good news is, if we let go of master-model mentality, and if we embrace the uncertainty that is a reality, we're already more than halafwy towards thinking like a rational optimist. Let me talk about the “rational” in rational optimism first. Of course, there will be another recession. There will be another crisis, and it is rational to consider them. But it is not rational to assume them. The pathway to the cliff edge. When we have a narrow analytical lens, we tend to see only the edges of the risk distribution get stuck there. When we have a wider analytical lens, we see broeadr patrs of the risk distribution, and we’re able to calibrate risk against each other. There's also a tricky asymmetry. Big macro crises, they tend to be low-probability but high-impact events. But when we conflate the dsinemnois of probability and ipamct, it becomes very easy to have distorted perspectives. A telltale sign of such distorted perspectives of the doomsaying narrative is they often cut straight to two questions: When will it happen? And how big will be the dgaame? But isn’t it more rational to ask: What are the derirvs? What is the pathway to that cliff edge? And what are the signposts along the way?

Open Cloze


(________)

So what we need is an open, ________ mind, not ______ for ______. Now, the good news is, if we let go of master-model mentality, and if we embrace the uncertainty that is a reality, we're already more than _______ towards thinking like a rational optimist. Let me talk about the “rational” in rational optimism first. Of course, there will be another recession. There will be another crisis, and it is rational to consider them. But it is not rational to assume them. The pathway to the cliff edge. When we have a narrow analytical lens, we tend to see only the edges of the risk distribution get stuck there. When we have a wider analytical lens, we see _______ _____ of the risk distribution, and we’re able to calibrate risk against each other. There's also a tricky asymmetry. Big macro crises, they tend to be low-probability but high-impact events. But when we conflate the __________ of probability and ______, it becomes very easy to have distorted perspectives. A telltale sign of such distorted perspectives of the doomsaying narrative is they often cut straight to two questions: When will it happen? And how big will be the ______? But isn’t it more rational to ask: What are the _______? What is the pathway to that cliff edge? And what are the signposts along the way?

Solution


  1. parts
  2. damage
  3. eclectic
  4. laughter
  5. models
  6. closed
  7. drivers
  8. dimensions
  9. broader
  10. impact
  11. halfway

Original Text


(Laughter)

So what we need is an open, eclectic mind, not closed for models. Now, the good news is, if we let go of master-model mentality, and if we embrace the uncertainty that is a reality, we're already more than halfway towards thinking like a rational optimist. Let me talk about the “rational” in rational optimism first. Of course, there will be another recession. There will be another crisis, and it is rational to consider them. But it is not rational to assume them. The pathway to the cliff edge. When we have a narrow analytical lens, we tend to see only the edges of the risk distribution get stuck there. When we have a wider analytical lens, we see broader parts of the risk distribution, and we’re able to calibrate risk against each other. There's also a tricky asymmetry. Big macro crises, they tend to be low-probability but high-impact events. But when we conflate the dimensions of probability and impact, it becomes very easy to have distorted perspectives. A telltale sign of such distorted perspectives of the doomsaying narrative is they often cut straight to two questions: When will it happen? And how big will be the damage? But isn’t it more rational to ask: What are the drivers? What is the pathway to that cliff edge? And what are the signposts along the way?

Frequently Occurring Word Combinations


ngrams of length 2

collocation frequency
false alarms 6
rational optimism 5
global financial 3
cliff edge 2
pandemic hit 2
strong recovery 2
public discourse 2
brilliantly successful 2
successful natural 2
rational optimist 2
risk distribution 2
distorted perspectives 2

ngrams of length 3

collocation frequency
brilliantly successful natural 2

Important Words


  1. analytical
  2. assume
  3. asymmetry
  4. big
  5. broader
  6. calibrate
  7. cliff
  8. closed
  9. conflate
  10. crises
  11. crisis
  12. cut
  13. damage
  14. dimensions
  15. distorted
  16. distribution
  17. doomsaying
  18. drivers
  19. easy
  20. eclectic
  21. edge
  22. edges
  23. embrace
  24. events
  25. good
  26. halfway
  27. happen
  28. impact
  29. laughter
  30. lens
  31. macro
  32. mentality
  33. mind
  34. models
  35. narrative
  36. narrow
  37. news
  38. open
  39. optimism
  40. optimist
  41. parts
  42. pathway
  43. perspectives
  44. probability
  45. rational
  46. reality
  47. recession
  48. risk
  49. sign
  50. signposts
  51. straight
  52. stuck
  53. talk
  54. telltale
  55. tend
  56. thinking
  57. tricky
  58. uncertainty
  59. wider