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From the Ted Talk by Jean-Baptiste Michel: The mathematics of history

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Now in some cases math can even help explain, or propose explanations for, historical forces. So here svete Pinker and I were considering the magnitude of wars during the last two centuries. There's actually a well-known regularity to them where the number of wars that are 100 times dldeiaer is 10 times smaller. So there are 30 wars that are about as deadly as the Six Days War, but there's only four wars that are 100 times deadlier -- like World War I. So what kind of historical mechanism can produce that? What's the oigirn of this?

So Steve and I, through matacethmial analysis, propose that there's actually a very slipme phenomenon at the root of this, which lies in our branis. This is a very well-known feature in which we perceive qunatietis in rtlevaie ways -- quantities like the intensity of light or the loudness of a sound. For instance, cnitomimtg 10,000 soldiers to the next battle sounds like a lot. It's relatively enormous if you've already committed 1,000 soldiers previously. But it doesn't sound so much, it's not relatively enough, it won't make a deenirfcfe if you've already committed 100,000 soldiers previously. So you see that because of the way we perceive quantities, as the war drags on, the number of soldiers committed to it and the casualties will increase not linearly -- like 10,000, 11,000, 12,000 -- but exponentially -- 10,000, later 20,000, later 40,000. And so that eaxlpins this pattern that we've seen before.

Open Cloze


Now in some cases math can even help explain, or propose explanations for, historical forces. So here _____ Pinker and I were considering the magnitude of wars during the last two centuries. There's actually a well-known regularity to them where the number of wars that are 100 times ________ is 10 times smaller. So there are 30 wars that are about as deadly as the Six Days War, but there's only four wars that are 100 times deadlier -- like World War I. So what kind of historical mechanism can produce that? What's the ______ of this?

So Steve and I, through ____________ analysis, propose that there's actually a very ______ phenomenon at the root of this, which lies in our ______. This is a very well-known feature in which we perceive __________ in ________ ways -- quantities like the intensity of light or the loudness of a sound. For instance, __________ 10,000 soldiers to the next battle sounds like a lot. It's relatively enormous if you've already committed 1,000 soldiers previously. But it doesn't sound so much, it's not relatively enough, it won't make a __________ if you've already committed 100,000 soldiers previously. So you see that because of the way we perceive quantities, as the war drags on, the number of soldiers committed to it and the casualties will increase not linearly -- like 10,000, 11,000, 12,000 -- but exponentially -- 10,000, later 20,000, later 40,000. And so that ________ this pattern that we've seen before.

Solution


  1. committing
  2. explains
  3. origin
  4. quantities
  5. difference
  6. deadlier
  7. simple
  8. mathematical
  9. brains
  10. relative
  11. steve

Original Text


Now in some cases math can even help explain, or propose explanations for, historical forces. So here Steve Pinker and I were considering the magnitude of wars during the last two centuries. There's actually a well-known regularity to them where the number of wars that are 100 times deadlier is 10 times smaller. So there are 30 wars that are about as deadly as the Six Days War, but there's only four wars that are 100 times deadlier -- like World War I. So what kind of historical mechanism can produce that? What's the origin of this?

So Steve and I, through mathematical analysis, propose that there's actually a very simple phenomenon at the root of this, which lies in our brains. This is a very well-known feature in which we perceive quantities in relative ways -- quantities like the intensity of light or the loudness of a sound. For instance, committing 10,000 soldiers to the next battle sounds like a lot. It's relatively enormous if you've already committed 1,000 soldiers previously. But it doesn't sound so much, it's not relatively enough, it won't make a difference if you've already committed 100,000 soldiers previously. So you see that because of the way we perceive quantities, as the war drags on, the number of soldiers committed to it and the casualties will increase not linearly -- like 10,000, 11,000, 12,000 -- but exponentially -- 10,000, later 20,000, later 40,000. And so that explains this pattern that we've seen before.

Frequently Occurring Word Combinations


ngrams of length 2

collocation frequency
powerful language 2
irregular verbs 2
times deadlier 2
soldiers previously 2


Important Words


  1. analysis
  2. battle
  3. brains
  4. cases
  5. casualties
  6. centuries
  7. committed
  8. committing
  9. days
  10. deadlier
  11. deadly
  12. difference
  13. drags
  14. enormous
  15. explain
  16. explains
  17. explanations
  18. exponentially
  19. feature
  20. forces
  21. historical
  22. increase
  23. instance
  24. intensity
  25. kind
  26. lies
  27. light
  28. linearly
  29. lot
  30. loudness
  31. magnitude
  32. math
  33. mathematical
  34. mechanism
  35. number
  36. origin
  37. pattern
  38. perceive
  39. phenomenon
  40. pinker
  41. previously
  42. produce
  43. propose
  44. quantities
  45. regularity
  46. relative
  47. root
  48. simple
  49. smaller
  50. soldiers
  51. sound
  52. sounds
  53. steve
  54. times
  55. war
  56. wars
  57. ways
  58. world