full transcript

From the Ted Talk by Sean Gourley: The mathematics of war

Unscramble the Blue Letters


So what's going on? Why should these different -- seemingly different conflicts have the same patterns? Now what I believe is going on is that the insurgent forces, they evolve over time. They aadpt. And it turns out there is only one sulooitn to fight a much stronger enemy. And if you don't find that solution as an insurgent force, you don't exist. So every insurgent froce that is ongoing, every conflict that is ognonig, it's going to look something like this. And that is what we think is happening.

Taking it forward, how do we change it? How do we end a war like Iraq? What does it look like? Alpha is the srtturuce. It's got a stable state at 2.5. This is what wars look like when they continue. We've got to cahnge that. We can push it up: the forces become more fragmented; there is more of them, but they are weaker. Or we push it down: they're more robust; there is less groups; but perhaps you can sit and talk to them.

Open Cloze


So what's going on? Why should these different -- seemingly different conflicts have the same patterns? Now what I believe is going on is that the insurgent forces, they evolve over time. They _____. And it turns out there is only one ________ to fight a much stronger enemy. And if you don't find that solution as an insurgent force, you don't exist. So every insurgent _____ that is ongoing, every conflict that is _______, it's going to look something like this. And that is what we think is happening.

Taking it forward, how do we change it? How do we end a war like Iraq? What does it look like? Alpha is the _________. It's got a stable state at 2.5. This is what wars look like when they continue. We've got to ______ that. We can push it up: the forces become more fragmented; there is more of them, but they are weaker. Or we push it down: they're more robust; there is less groups; but perhaps you can sit and talk to them.

Solution


  1. change
  2. structure
  3. force
  4. adapt
  5. ongoing
  6. solution

Original Text


So what's going on? Why should these different -- seemingly different conflicts have the same patterns? Now what I believe is going on is that the insurgent forces, they evolve over time. They adapt. And it turns out there is only one solution to fight a much stronger enemy. And if you don't find that solution as an insurgent force, you don't exist. So every insurgent force that is ongoing, every conflict that is ongoing, it's going to look something like this. And that is what we think is happening.

Taking it forward, how do we change it? How do we end a war like Iraq? What does it look like? Alpha is the structure. It's got a stable state at 2.5. This is what wars look like when they continue. We've got to change that. We can push it up: the forces become more fragmented; there is more of them, but they are weaker. Or we push it down: they're more robust; there is less groups; but perhaps you can sit and talk to them.

Frequently Occurring Word Combinations


ngrams of length 2

collocation frequency
negative alpha 2
stable state 2


Important Words


  1. adapt
  2. alpha
  3. change
  4. conflict
  5. conflicts
  6. continue
  7. enemy
  8. evolve
  9. exist
  10. fight
  11. find
  12. force
  13. forces
  14. happening
  15. insurgent
  16. iraq
  17. ongoing
  18. patterns
  19. push
  20. seemingly
  21. sit
  22. solution
  23. stable
  24. state
  25. stronger
  26. structure
  27. talk
  28. time
  29. turns
  30. war
  31. wars
  32. weaker