full transcript

From the Ted Talk by Alex Edmans: What to trust in a "post-truth" world

Unscramble the Blue Letters


Because that's the second example of coimfnoritan bias. We apccet a fact as data. The biggest problem is not that we live in a post-truth world; it's that we live in a post-data world. We prefer a single story to tons of data. Now, seotirs are powerful, they're vivid, they bring it to life. They tell you to sratt every talk with a story. I did. But a single story is meaningless and maiesldnig unless it's backed up by large-scale data. But even if we had large-scale data, that might still not be enough. Because it could still be consistent with rival theories. Let me explain.

A classic study by psychologist Peter Wason gives you a set of three numbers and asks you to think of the rule that generated them. So if you're given two, four, six, what's the rule? Well, most people would think, it's successive even numbers. How would you test it? Well, you'd poprsoe other sets of successive even numbers: 4, 6, 8 or 12, 14, 16. And pteer would say these sets also work. But kwniong that these sets also work, knowing that perhaps hundreds of sets of successive even numbers also work, tells you nothing. Because this is still cnitnseost with rival theories. Perhaps the rule is any three even numbers. Or any three increasing numbers.

Open Cloze


Because that's the second example of ____________ bias. We ______ a fact as data. The biggest problem is not that we live in a post-truth world; it's that we live in a post-data world. We prefer a single story to tons of data. Now, _______ are powerful, they're vivid, they bring it to life. They tell you to _____ every talk with a story. I did. But a single story is meaningless and __________ unless it's backed up by large-scale data. But even if we had large-scale data, that might still not be enough. Because it could still be consistent with rival theories. Let me explain.

A classic study by psychologist Peter Wason gives you a set of three numbers and asks you to think of the rule that generated them. So if you're given two, four, six, what's the rule? Well, most people would think, it's successive even numbers. How would you test it? Well, you'd _______ other sets of successive even numbers: 4, 6, 8 or 12, 14, 16. And _____ would say these sets also work. But _______ that these sets also work, knowing that perhaps hundreds of sets of successive even numbers also work, tells you nothing. Because this is still __________ with rival theories. Perhaps the rule is any three even numbers. Or any three increasing numbers.

Solution


  1. peter
  2. confirmation
  3. consistent
  4. stories
  5. propose
  6. misleading
  7. accept
  8. knowing
  9. start

Original Text


Because that's the second example of confirmation bias. We accept a fact as data. The biggest problem is not that we live in a post-truth world; it's that we live in a post-data world. We prefer a single story to tons of data. Now, stories are powerful, they're vivid, they bring it to life. They tell you to start every talk with a story. I did. But a single story is meaningless and misleading unless it's backed up by large-scale data. But even if we had large-scale data, that might still not be enough. Because it could still be consistent with rival theories. Let me explain.

A classic study by psychologist Peter Wason gives you a set of three numbers and asks you to think of the rule that generated them. So if you're given two, four, six, what's the rule? Well, most people would think, it's successive even numbers. How would you test it? Well, you'd propose other sets of successive even numbers: 4, 6, 8 or 12, 14, 16. And Peter would say these sets also work. But knowing that these sets also work, knowing that perhaps hundreds of sets of successive even numbers also work, tells you nothing. Because this is still consistent with rival theories. Perhaps the rule is any three even numbers. Or any three increasing numbers.

Frequently Occurring Word Combinations


ngrams of length 2

collocation frequency
rival theories 5
confirmation bias 4
pet theory 3
single story 3
health advice 2
bayesian inference 2
biggest problem 2
good grades 2
tip number 2
gut feel 2
critically examine 2
academic journals 2


Important Words


  1. accept
  2. asks
  3. backed
  4. bias
  5. biggest
  6. bring
  7. classic
  8. confirmation
  9. consistent
  10. data
  11. explain
  12. fact
  13. generated
  14. hundreds
  15. increasing
  16. knowing
  17. life
  18. live
  19. meaningless
  20. misleading
  21. numbers
  22. people
  23. peter
  24. powerful
  25. prefer
  26. problem
  27. propose
  28. psychologist
  29. rival
  30. rule
  31. set
  32. sets
  33. single
  34. start
  35. stories
  36. story
  37. study
  38. successive
  39. talk
  40. tells
  41. test
  42. theories
  43. tons
  44. vivid
  45. wason
  46. work
  47. world